Precursor activities related to U.S. terrorism incidents

O’Neill associate professor Jeff Gruenewald was the co-principal investigator on research for the National Institute of Justice that specifically examined the nature of the terrorist attack planning process, including group size, length of planning process, and level of incident sophistication, and how such factors are associated with success or failure of terrorist incidents.

Data used in the analysis were compiled from the American Terrorism Study, a relational database that at the time of the analysis included 1,360 federal “terrorism-related” court cases involving 1,922 indictees.

Significant differences exist between the number of preparatory acts associated with more sophisticated incidents (e.g., those involving biological weapons, projectile weapons, aircraft, etc.) and the number of preparatory activities associated with less sophisticated incidents (e.g., those involving blunt objects or bodily weapons).

Research conducted during the project was intended to help investigators and prosecutors make more educated guesses regarding the answers to several questions they must ask themselves when they become aware of a terrorist plot:

• How much time do we have before this group plans to commit a violent terrorist act?
• How far along are the terrorists in the planning process?
• How many individuals are involved in the plot?
• Is there enough time to infiltrate the group with informants or operatives?
• Can we allow the plot to progress to allow for additional evidence to be collected, or should we intervene immediately?

The focus on temporal data connected to precursor activities provides a new angle from which to inform the decision-making process. The definitive temporal record of acts related to previous terrorist plots in the United States can be used by investigators, fusion center analysts, and federal prosecutors to develop a better understanding of the nature of the terrorist incident planning cycle and to help develop adaptable tools and approaches to disrupting and preventing terrorist activities.